Q: What is “Missing Middle” housing?
A: Arlington has proposed expanding Missing Middle housing types, which include duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, quadraplexes and small apartment buildings, in single-family neighborhoods through possible upzoning.
Q: What is upzoning?
Arlington is considering “upzoning” single-family neighborhoods to allow construction of more intensive Missing Middle housing on single-family home lots.
Q: Aren’t duplexes already allowed in single-family neighborhoods?
A: Yes. Depending on the zoning, they can be built in some Arlington single-family neighborhoods if a builder obtains a special exception use permit and meets certain requirements. Arlington County also allows detached, accessory dwelling units in any zone that permits one-family dwellings[1]See §3.2.4.C. Exceptions on pp. 3-8 and 3-9 of the Zoning Ordinance https://arlingtonva.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/38/2019/10/ACZO.pdf.
Q: So, how is upzoning different from the special exception process?
A: Upzoning is a blanket change in zoning that will allow more intensive housing in places zoned for single-family homes without the need to seek any special permission.
Q: How would upzoning impact property values in single-family neighborhoods?
A: Property values, and property assessments will increase. Developers will have the ability to construct duplexes, triplexes, etc. on one single-family home lot, increasing the value of the property – even if no missing middle housing is built. Read “Upzoning Chicago: Impacts of a Zoning Reform on Property Values and Housing Construction.”
Q: Will upzoning create more affordable or moderately priced housing for middle income residents?
A: No. Arlington County has repeatedly stated that the goal of missing middle housing is not to create more affordable housing and that “upzoning is unrelated to housing prices.” Yet, the implication is that missing middle housing will somehow create more “middle class” housing.
Q: What impact would upzoning have on moderately priced single-family neighborhoods?
A: Upzoning could lead to greater gentrification – where lower and median income residents are displaced by those with higher income levels. This is likely to occur especially in those neighborhoods where the current cost of homes is below average, whether these homes are rented or owned. Arlington’s land values are already high. Developers who build missing middle housing will have every incentive to maximize their profits by replacing single family homes with high end missing middle housing that will end up being affordable only to high end buyers. This has happened in Seattle, Bloomington, Indiana, Chicago and other communities in the country that have adopted upzoning.
Q: Will housing created by upzoning provide more opportunities for home ownership?
A: Not likely. If upzoning is enacted, no typical family with a moderate income will be able to outbid a developer for a home. If a developer tears down a house to build multiple market rate units, there is no way to ensure that these units would be sold to individuals instead of to investors as rental properties. Even if they are sold to individual families, they will likely be unaffordable to those with moderate incomes. Read “Blanket Upzoning – A Blunt Instrument-Won’t Solve the Affordable Housing Crisis” and “Upzoning-Be Careful What You Wish For…”
Q: What impact will upzoning have on Arlington County Public Schools?
A: More housing will mean even greater enrollment in the County’s over capacity schools. From 2009 to 2018, enrollment increased by 36 percent. It is already a challenge to find land to expand or build new schools, redraw boundaries and fund more school resources. Creating denser housing will exacerbate the controversies surrounding these issues and further burden taxpayers. Read about New York – “As Housing Booms, Will Schools Have Room?”
The pressure to convert Arlington’s public parks into schools will only exacerbate as upzoning swells the population. The Arlington County Board already has identified multiple parks for potential use as school sites to handle currently expected school population growth.
Q: What impact will upzoning have on a neighborhood’s quality of life?
A: Greater population density in neighborhoods will worsen parking and traffic problems and create new problems where they don’t currently exist. In older neighborhoods, water and sewer infrastructure, that may already need to be replaced, will be overstretched. The demand for public safety, county services, parks, recreational opportunities and libraries will increase and available facilities will be more overcrowded. See the Pros and Cons of Upzoning in Seattle.
Q: What impact will upzoning have on a neighborhood’s ability to withstand flooding/storms?
A: Arlington already has severe stormwater infrastructure problems that have caused millions of dollars in flood damage. The County estimates addressing these issues will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Allowing greater density housing will add to this burden, creating more impervious surface in neighborhoods and reducing tree canopy – factors that increase stormwater runoff and flooding.
Q: Will upzoning diminish environmental quality by reducing even more green space?
A: Potentially – yes. One way to provide incentives to developers is to reduce building setbacks for missing middle housing. This will translate into less green space on residential lots.
Q: Will upzoning replace the thousands of affordable rental housing units that have been lost over the last 20 years?
A: No. There is no reason to expect new missing middle housing to be affordable, as the County’s preliminary study admits, saying “Missing middle housing types do not always correlate with a specific income bracket.”[2]Missing Middle Housing Study: A Stakeholder Guide. Bulletin 1, June 2020, p. 3.
Most of the affordable rental units that were lost disappeared due to gentrification or redevelopment into more expensive housing options. [3]“The number of homes (including both rental and ownership stock) affordable to low- and moderate-income households has declined precipitously since 2000. About 13,500 market affordable apartment … Continue reading From 2013 to 2019, Arlington added less than 1600 units of affordable housing. “Arlington County Annual Affordable Housing Report Fiscal Year 2019,” February 12, 2020, pp. 2, 4.)) In some cases, affordable housing was demolished to make way for much more expensive middle density housing. For example, in 2016, on the 5700 block of 11th Street North, modest garden apartments were demolished to build townhouses with assessed valuations above $828,000. Arlington Property Search (arlingtonva.us).
Q: Can Arlington try upzoning to see how it works?
A: No. Unfortunately, once in place, upzoning cannot be reversed because of State law governing property values. If after a few years, upzoning is found to have been a mistake, the damage will be done and there is no going back. [4]“Virginia is known as a property rights state. Generally speaking, that means that a local government like Arlington usually has the legal zoning power to expand the number of alternative types … Continue reading
Q: Why the rush towards upzoning when it will be years before the true impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Arlington’s housing and commercial markets are known?
A: COVID-19 has made the future uncertain in so many ways. People are moving to less densely populated areas due to an increase in telecommuting, and that trend may be hastened by COVID.[5]Americans are moving away from built-up urban areas: The Indicator from Planet Money : NPR; These people have left big cities for good. Here’s where they landed – CNN Businesses are already reassessing renting or owning office space for all their employees. More online shopping is here to stay.[6]“At the same time, customers are also not returning to retail halls in the same way — in part due to ongoing fears about social interaction but also due to increasing preferences for online … Continue reading
It is difficult to predict what the post-COVID housing and commercial real estate market, schools, transportation system or Arlington economy will look like. The assumptions used to justify upzoning may no longer hold true. Let’s slow down and make sure we know what the future holds before permanently changing the community we love.
Q: Has Arlington County tried upzoning in the past?
A: In the 1960’s, Arlington upzoned the areas within a half mile of new Metrorail stations, resulting in seven mixed-use neighborhoods. [7]Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor (arlingtonva.us) In exchange for concentrating dense development around the Metro corridors and preserving green space to offset the intensified development, Arlington County promised to preserve nearby single-family neighborhoods.[8]In 1975, “Arlington adopted Development and Growth Goals as a result of the County’s Long Range County Improvement Program, established in 1973. These goals, intended to support the concentration … Continue reading Upzoning single-family neighborhoods now breaks that decades-long promise.
Q: Are there others critical of upzoning?
A: Yes, many have questioned the value of upzoning. Here are some examples.
According to Dr. Jenny Schuetz, a fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program of the Brookings Institution, “when ‘gentle increase’ upzoning has been introduced into these markets, it hasn’t resulted in enough development to make a significant impact on housing affordability.” [9]What is upzoning? – Curbed
In California, affordable housing advocates opposed a law allowing large scale upzoning because it would lead to gentrification not affordable housing. [10]“But protesters with Moms 4 Housing — a group started by homeless women who took over an empty, investor-owned West Oakland house in November — worry the bill will allow too many … Continue reading
A study of upzoning in Chicago found “that the short-term, local-level impacts of upzoning are higher property prices but no additional new housing construction.”[11]Upzoning Chicago: Impacts of a Zoning Reform on Property Values and Housing Construction – Yonah Freemark, 2020 (sagepub.com)
According to Professor Michael Storper of UCLA, blanket upzoning will not achieve affordability. Moreover, “blanket upzoning produces the consequence of displacement. Skilled people with high incomes—those who would benefit most from upzoning—are going to move into upzoned neighborhoods and crowd out the middle- and lower-income people who are living there.” [12]Blanket Upzoning—A Blunt Instrument—Won’t Solve the Affordable Housing Crisis | The Planning Report.
References
| ↑1 | See §3.2.4.C. Exceptions on pp. 3-8 and 3-9 of the Zoning Ordinance https://arlingtonva.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/38/2019/10/ACZO.pdf |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | Missing Middle Housing Study: A Stakeholder Guide. Bulletin 1, June 2020, p. 3. |
| ↑3 | “The number of homes (including both rental and ownership stock) affordable to low- and moderate-income households has declined precipitously since 2000. About 13,500 market affordable apartment homes that were affordable to households earning below 60 percent of area median income were lost from the County’s housing stock through rent increases, condo conversion, and redevelopment in the period from 2000 to 2013. “Arlington County Affordable Housing Master Plan,” September 2015, p. 12. |
| ↑4 | “Virginia is known as a property rights state. Generally speaking, that means that a local government like Arlington usually has the legal zoning power to expand the number of alternative types of housing that may be built on a parcel, but not to reduce the number of alternative types of housing that may be built on a parcel. The legal impediment to reducing those alternatives is that Virginia extends great deference to the expectations that the current owner had when that owner purchased the property regarding the number of different alternative uses to which it could be put, and is entitled to rely on those uses not being reduced because such reductions generally lower the value of the property.” Peter Rousselot |
| ↑5 | Americans are moving away from built-up urban areas: The Indicator from Planet Money : NPR; These people have left big cities for good. Here’s where they landed – CNN |
| ↑6 | “At the same time, customers are also not returning to retail halls in the same way — in part due to ongoing fears about social interaction but also due to increasing preferences for online shopping. Retailers are in flux.” KPMG “Real Estate in the New Reality,” August 2020, p. 4 Available at The digitization of work – KPMG Global (home.kpmg) |
| ↑7 | Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor (arlingtonva.us) |
| ↑8 | In 1975, “Arlington adopted Development and Growth Goals as a result of the County’s Long Range County Improvement Program, established in 1973. These goals, intended to support the concentration of higher-density development in the Metro corridors and the preservation of lower-density residential neighborhoods, were incorporated into the GLUP and are used as a guide for development.” Missing Middle Housing Study: Arlington’s Land Use Policy and Zoning. Bulletin 4, August 2020, p. 7. |
| ↑9 | What is upzoning? – Curbed |
| ↑10 | “But protesters with Moms 4 Housing — a group started by homeless women who took over an empty, investor-owned West Oakland house in November — worry the bill will allow too many luxury homes to be built, and not enough affordable housing.” Moms 4 Housing takes over SB 50 press conference in Oakland (mercurynews.com) |
| ↑11 | Upzoning Chicago: Impacts of a Zoning Reform on Property Values and Housing Construction – Yonah Freemark, 2020 (sagepub.com) |
| ↑12 | Blanket Upzoning—A Blunt Instrument—Won’t Solve the Affordable Housing Crisis | The Planning Report. |