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Popular Myths Debunked
For Immediate Release: September 12, 2022
“Missing Middle” Isn’t Missing in Arlington:
Popular Myths Debunked
Arlingtonians for Upzoning Transparency (AfUT) is concerned that Arlington County is rushing to approve a controversial and flawed “Missing Middle” upzoning housing plan that will allow 2- to 8-unit multiplexes in every residential neighborhood. The County’s own reports contain mixed messaging that confuses the public about the plan’s true impacts.
The term “Missing Middle” itself conveys the false impression that Arlington lacks duplexes, triplexes, townhomes and small apartment buildings, which according to a county study “constitute only a small percentage of … homes.”1 Yet the County’s own reports show that Missing Middle housing (MMH) represents 30%2 of Arlington’s existing housing stock, whereas only 24% is single family homes.3
“Moderately priced homes in Arlington are not missing,” said former realtor Diane Duston. “In Arlington on September 5, 2022, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) had 77 detached, semi-detached or town houses on the market with three or more bedrooms ranging in price from $554,900 to $999,000. These numbers are typical; on any given day, there are anywhere from 50 to more than 100 homes for sale in this price range.”
The county’s upzoning proposal incentivizes teardowns of existing lower-cost, single-family homes, which the County admits are typically more affordable than new construction. This is just one example of how the County continues to mischaracterize the impacts of MMH and its proposed solution.
Most Missing Middle Units Won’t Be “Family-Sized”
The Expanding Housing Choice: The Missing Middle Housing Study Phase 1 Report4 cites concern about the lack of “family-sized” units of three or more bedrooms in Arlington. However, data from in the County’s consultant makes clear that about 90% of new Missing Middle housing will likely be 1- or 2- bedroom units,5 not family-sized 3- or 4-bedroom units that the Affordable Housing Master Plan says are needed.6
There is no supply shortage in what the Plan will overwhelmingly create: expensive 1- to 2-bedroom units. In an email, Arlington County staff cited 2020 Real Estate Assessment Data and CoStar, stating that there are 68,495 1- and 2-bedroom dwelling units countywide (roughly half of all units).
Missing Middle Will Limit Home Ownership
The County claims that this new housing will promote home ownership. Far more likely, these new 1- and 2-bedroom units (and possibly all Missing Middle housing) will be rental properties. Of the 8,000 2- to 9-unit buildings constructed in Virginia between 2013 and 2019, 83% percent are renter-occupied.7
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors agreed in a June 2022 letter to County Board Chair Cristol, noting that “the published results of the framework failed to examine if the proposed housing types were more likely to be developed as rental housing or ownership opportunities” and that the “lack of focus on ownership also has major implications for the goal of achieving equity in housing.”8
National and international real estate investors stand to gain the most from the new opportunities for construction of rental properties.9
Missing Middle Won’t Be Affordable to Middle-Income Residents
The term “Missing Middle” seems to imply that the new housing will be affordable to middle-class families. In reality, Missing Middle housing will be too expensive for low-and moderate-income households. The County’s own study materials say that “Missing Middle … refers to SIZE, not PRICE.”10
County estimates quote a minimum yearly household income of $108,000 needed to afford the smallest, 700-square-foot unit in an 8-plex building;11 and an annual income of $244,000 would be required to purchase a single duplex unit, at a cost of $1.1–$1.4 million.12 (NOTE: These projections were made before the recent increases in mortgage interest rates.)
Missing Middle Could Reduce Diversity
A minimum annual income of $108,000 means that Missing Middle housing will be out of reach for the majority of economically diverse residents. In the County’s Research Compendium Bulletin 2, the median household income for Blacks or African Americans in Arlington was shown as $58,878, for Hispanic or Latinos it was $77,743, and for Asians it was $93,660.13
According to one report, the Columbia Pike corridor—with its Form-Based Code upzoning and increased density—is experiencing gentrification, with newcomers to the Pike being described as whiter, younger, wealthier and better educated than existing Pike residents.14 Increases in redevelopment and density have resulted in six of the 10 highest appreciating neighborhoods in Arlington County (since 2000) being located proximate to the Pike.15
“Developing housing that is more affordable, encouraging diversity and righting imbalances that have led to housing inequalities in Arlington is something we all want,” said Julie Lee, a founder of Arlingtonians for Upzoning Transparency. “But, as we have seen on Columbia Pike, upzoning won’t achieve these goals.”
Arlington Could Fix the Teardown Problem—But Has Not Acted
County officials have cited the teardown phenomenon—replacing modest homes with very large, expensive ones—as a reason to approve Missing Middle upzoning. Yet, the County has largely ignored repeated pleas over the years to shrink the generous lot coverage requirements and reform the height calculation process for single-family homes that effectively enable and encourage development of larger, more expensive (and more profitable) homes.
“For many years, our residents have raised concerns about the oversized homes being built that result in decimation of mature tree canopy, cause stormwater and flooding issues on nearby lots, and encourage teardowns of more affordable homes,” said Bill Richardson, president of Donaldson Run Civic Association. “This past April, the County Board finally directed staff to review the problem. The County has said Missing Middle housing will be the same size as single-family homes, but that is cold comfort. Approving Missing Middle upzoning before reforming the current, inadequate standards will simply further encourage the push for more teardowns of the most affordable single-family homes in the County and perpetuate the environmental damage that is occurring.”
Missing Middle Will Displace Existing Residents
Though increased pressure on housing costs resulting from added density and new construction has displaced Arlington residents before,16 Arlington County staff has acknowledged in conversations that no plan to monitor the impacts of Missing Middle gentrification on existing renters and homeowners living in modestly priced neighborhoods is in place or is even being contemplated, unlike Seattle which has a 68-page monitoring plan and displacement toolkit.
“The County’s Missing Middle plan is a broad brush, one-size-fits-all, market driven approach that is harmful to many communities in Arlington,” said Lee. “It will not provide opportunities for home ownership or wealth creation for most Arlingtonians, nor will it promote diversity. In some cases, it may displace long-time renters and older homeowners in established communities. This plan will only benefit developers, landlords and the wealthy.”
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Media Contact: Julie Lee, jfblee@aol.com, or Diane Duston, dduston429@aol.com
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1 P. 6, Missing Middle Housing Study: A Stakeholder Guide Bulletin 1: “Arlington has 116,000 housing units, and only a small percentage (emphasis added) of those homes could be considered “missing middle” housing.
2 P. 3, Expanding Housing Choice: The Missing Middle Housing Study Phase 1 Report, the County says, “Approximately 30% of Arlington’s existing housing stock can be classified as Missing Middle housing.”
3 P. 6, Missing Middle Housing Study: A Stakeholder Guide Bulletin 1
4 P. 3, Expanding Housing Choice: The Missing Middle Housing Study Phase 1 Report.
5 Table below obtained through a FOIA request contained in an email between County staff and their consultant Partners for Economic Solutions.
6 p. 22, Arlington County Affordable Housing Master Plan: https://arlingtonva.s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/12/AHMP-Published.pdf
7 U.S. Census ACS 1-year microdata estimates for housing by tenure in Arlington and in Virginia (2019) (detached; multi-unit buildings of 2–9 units).
8 6-27-2022 NVAR Letter to Arlington County Board Chair Katie Cristol: https://www.nvar.com/docs/default-source/pdfs/nvar-position-on-arlington-missing-middle-framework-6-27-22.pdf?sfvrsn=fc9d9b0d_2
9 “Investors bought a record share of homes in 2021”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/housing-market-investors/
10 P. 2, Missing Middle Housing Study: Expanding Housing Choice Phase 2 Update: https://www.arlingtonva.us/files/sharedassets/public/housing/documents/missing-middle/presentation-mmhs-for-civic-association-mtgs-02.22-updated.pdf
11 P. 10, Consultant Analysis of Missing Middle Housing Alternatives: https://www.arlingtonva.us/files/sharedassets/public/housing/documents/missing-middle/mmhs_consultantanalysis_2022-04-28.pdf
12 P. 20, Missing Middle Housing Study: Expanding Housing Choice, Phase 2 Analysis and Draft Framework, May 2, 2022: https://www.arlingtonva.us/files/sharedassets/public/housing/documents/missing-middle/mmhs-phase-2-public-presentation_05.02.pdf
13 P. 11, Missing Middle Housing Study: Housing Market Pressures, Bulletin 2: https://arlingtonva.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2020/07/MMHS_ResearchCompendium_Bulletin2_FINAL.pdf
14 P. 10, 17 &18, Columbia Pike Commercial Market Study, Final Report, October 2019: https://arlington.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=2&clip_id=3697&meta_id=190791
15 Neighborhood Scout website, Highest Appreciating Arlington Neighborhoods Since 2000: https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/va/arlington/real-estate
16“Tenants Fight Planned Arna Valley Sale”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1998/05/07/tenants-fight-planned-arna-valley-sale/a897dece-a0c6-431f-bd4f-b76301826744/ and “Growing Pains: Multicultural explosion rattles residents”: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/10/northern-virginia-diversity-race/18079525/
“The housing problem came to the fore in the late 1990s when a post-World War II housing complex called Arna Valley, home to 3,000 mostly Hispanic immigrants, was torn down. In its place came new luxury apartments.
“And the trend continued as more high-rises and expensive townhouses went up. Wealthy, white 25- to 34-year-olds moved in and more blacks and Hispanics moved out. Census data show the combined black and Hispanic population shrank 7% from 2000 to 2010. The ranks of non-Hispanic whites grew by 16%.”
